TCSLib

112 Learning Theory — Weighted Majority

112.1 Overview

This module formalizes the mistake-bound analysis of the Weighted Majority algorithm. Starting from \(n\) experts each assigned unit weight, the algorithm multiplies the weight of every mistaken expert by a penalty factor \(\beta \in (0,1)\) after each round. The key results bound the total number of algorithm mistakes \(M_{\mathrm{WM}}\) in terms of the best expert’s mistake count \(M^*\) and \(n\), and a factor-2 lower bound shows the analysis is essentially tight for deterministic learners.

112.2 Declarations

Theorem 112.1 Weight shrinkage after \(M\) mistakes
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Let \(\beta \in (0,1)\), let \(W : \mathbb {N} \to \mathbb {R}\) be a sequence of positive reals, and suppose \(W(k+1) \le W(k) \cdot \tfrac {1+\beta }{2}\) for every \(k \lt M\). Then

\[ W(M) \; \le \; W(0) \cdot \left(\frac{1+\beta }{2}\right)^{\! M}. \]
Theorem 112.2 Total weight upper bound
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Under the same shrinkage hypothesis as wm_weight_shrinkage, if additionally \(n \ge 1\) and the initial total weight satisfies \(W(0) = n\), then

\[ W(M) \; \le \; n \cdot \left(\frac{1+\beta }{2}\right)^{\! M}. \]
Theorem 112.3 Combined potential bound
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Let \(\beta \in (0,1)\), \(n \ge 1\), and suppose \(\beta ^{M^*} \le n \cdot \bigl(\tfrac {1+\beta }{2}\bigr)^{M_{\mathrm{WM}}}\). Then

\[ \log \! \left(\beta ^{M^*}\right) \; \le \; \log \! \left(n \cdot \left(\tfrac {1+\beta }{2}\right)^{M_{\mathrm{WM}}}\right). \]

This packages the potential inequality into logarithmic form by monotonicity of \(\log \).

Theorem 112.4 Logarithmic mistake bound
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Let \(n \ge 2\), \(\beta \in (0,1)\), and suppose \(\beta ^{M^*} \le n \cdot \bigl(\tfrac {1+\beta }{2}\bigr)^{M_{\mathrm{WM}}}\). Then

\[ M_{\mathrm{WM}} \cdot \log \! \frac{2}{1+\beta } \; \le \; \log n \; +\; M^* \cdot \log \frac{1}{\beta }. \]

Equivalently, \(M_{\mathrm{WM}} \le \dfrac {\log n + M^* \cdot \log (1/\beta )}{\log (2/(1+\beta ))}\), giving the standard Weighted Majority mistake bound.

Theorem 112.5 Factor-2 lower bound for deterministic algorithms
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For any \(T \in \mathbb {N}\), there exist \(M_{\mathrm{alg}}, M^* \in \mathbb {N}\) with \(M_{\mathrm{alg}} = T\) and \(2 M^* \le T\). This witnesses that a deterministic learner facing two constant experts can be forced by an adversary to make \(T\) mistakes while the best expert makes at most \(T/2\), showing the factor of \(2\) in the Weighted Majority bound is unavoidable.